I know that after tonight’s US Presidential election, whatever the outcome will be, a lot of people will say “I told you so” and “that’s exactly what I said would happen”. I am different. I make my predictions before election night and you can then hold me to account and decide if you will follow this blog for the next four years or not.
- My stance (which I have held throughout the whole year) that polls don’t matter will be confirmed. I have consistently refused to look at, read or discuss polls and have always said “polls don’t count, votes do”. Tonight, this will be proven to be true.
- Because the US encompasses different time zones, votes in the Eastern United States will be counted first. (It has to do with the rotation of the earth around the sun, something which is actually denied by a considerable part of the the electorate and against which there is a ballot initiative in Kentucky.) Florida, a swing state with 29 electoral votes, will be among the first to be counted. Ohio, the other important swing state with 18 electoral votes, will come soon thereafter. After this, the election will be decided. But as the TV networks will still have to fill another couple of hours, they will show you lots of boring charts about how some county or some demographic group voted or what would happen if California suddenly would come up with a majority for Mitt Romney and they will bring in some people from previous campaigns whom we have forgotten about to say a few sentences. You may as well go to sleep.
- Whoever wins, the political climate in the US will deteriorate further. It will remain a polarized country. Disappointed voters will say that the “election has been stolen” and assemble outside of the White House with placards saying “this is not my President”. I don’t see any reason for optimism. Blame Chuck Norris’ wife and her prediction of “a thousand years of darkness” if President Obama is re-elected.
- All the people who have promised that they will leave the US and move to Canada if X or Y will win, will however not move at all. Sadly.
- There will be endless court cases and legal disputes about recounts, provisional ballots, disenfranchisement of voters, irregularities with voting machines, the delayed robo-calls in Florida, long waiting lines, voter ID laws and much more. Lawyers are waiting like vultures already. We may not have a final, binding result for a few more months.
- If Mitt Romney will lose, the Republican Party will immediately dump him (and vice versa, probably). They never really liked each other anyway. Paul Ryan will be the early frontrunner of the Republican primaries for 2016. (Better than Rick Santorum or Michelle Bachmann in any case.)
- I can’t watch Fox News for more than a minute without getting angry and I don’t receive it here in Lithuania, but when the election will be called for President Obama, I would love to see what Fox News will make of it. I am also curious about what this girl will have to say.
- Now finally to my prediction of the outcome: I predict a tie. Yes, I predict that the 538 votes of the Electoral College will split exactly down the middle. That means that the (newly elected) House of Representatives will elect the President and the Senate will elect the Vice President. Assuming that the composition of both chambers of Congress won’t change too much, this would mean that Mitt Romney would become President and Joe Biden would be his Vice President. The relationship between the two offices will be as strained as in some seasons of 24.
- I have no scientific, statistical, mathematical mumbo-jumbo to support my prediction, but my thinking goes like this: If I correctly predict an Obama victory, I will be one among thousands. If I correctly predict a Romney victory, I will be one among hundreds. If there will really be a tie, I will be the only guy to have predicted it correctly and I will win a scholarship for a PhD program in political science.
Please follow me tonight at www.facebook.com/andreas.moser.blog where I will be live-blogging throughout election night.