Don’t buy Facebook shares!

A few friends of mine in California calling themselves “Facebook“ asked me if I want to buy 421 million of their shares at 38 $ a pop. I did a quick calculation and noticed that I don’t have enough money. Because of this, they are now having a yard sale which they call “IPO” for some inexplicable reason.

It may not be nice of me to tell you this behind my friends’ back, but I warn you: Don’t buy Facebook shares! They are a bad investment.

1. The shares that are being sold aren’t real shares. Mark, the big honcho in the gang, will still retain 57% of voting rights after the IPO even though he will only hold 22% of the shares. In effect, you would give away money without having any control over what happens with it.
2. Facebook doesn’t produce or sell anything that people need. Who needs a website where friends tell me what they had for breakfast? Or try to show off photos of their ugly babies? Nobody needs that.
3. “But,” I hear you say “Facebook has 900 million users. That shows how popular they are.” Sure. But these users don’t pay anything. It’s like these free newspapers you get in the Metro or like porn websites: you use them because they are free, but you would never pay for it.
4. What is more: Facebook will never be able to charge its users. Unlike quality publications like the New York Times or this blog who can switch from a free provision of services to a paywall model, nobody will pay for Facebook because it’s not unique. If Facebook would start charging users, most of them would go away immediately. And I bet that within a week at most, somebody else will have set up a site where you can upload photos and status messages. It’s not a hard thing to copy really.
5. The only way Facebook actually earns revenue is advertising (apart from the illegal selling of all your personal data, that is). But one day, companies are going to find out that advertising doesn’t work, especially not online where I can install an ad-blocker and I won’t ever be exposed to advertising again. I recently did so, it took a minute, it was free and it works. I am now using my Facebook without seeing any ads. Nobody makes any money off me.
6. The reliance on advertising revenue also means that the only way to increase revenue is to put up more ads. Doing this would annoy users and drive them away.
7. Online hypes come fast, but they also die fast. I remember when a few years ago everybody was hyped up about “Second Life”. I never got around to having a look at it, and by now I think it is dead.
8. Ask Rupert Murdoch about his investment in MySpace or the people who bought shares in GroupOn.
9. Early investors are selling in this IPO. Nearly 60% of the shares hitting the market today are being sold by insiders. If these people who know all the numbers and the strategy would think that the share price would develop upwards, they wouldn’t sell now but remain invested for another 6 or 12 months at least.
10. Facebook already has lots of legal problems, mainly stemming from its constant violation of data protection rights. Lawyers are even more eager to take on a publicly traded company, because lawsuits tend to have a negative effect on the share price which creates an extra incentive on Facebook’s behalf to settle and pay out lots of money to lawyers (and maybe a bit to their clients as well).

The Most Important Investment Advice

My # 1 investment advice:

If you still have money left when you die, you have done something wrong.

Too much hedging can be boring.

France, don’t worry about the rich leaving you.

France, first of all congratulations on getting rid of xenophobic Mr Sarkozy.

Because of Mr Hollande’s proposed 75% tax rate on incomes of more than 1 million €, some rich residents of France have threatened to leave France. Where do they intend to leave to? To the Bahamas? To Malta? To the Cayman Islands? No. They want to move to the UK, of all places. To London to be more precise.

If you still needed any evidence that the rich are not necessarily smarter, now you have it.

Let’s look at the most important differences between France and the UK (which will show that no reasonable person would want to move that way, but rather the other way round):

Nature

France

UK

Cities

France

UK

Food

France

UK

Art

France

UK

Women

France: Mélanie Laurent

UK: Susan Boyle

To the emigrating rich of France: if you really want to come to London, I’ll swap my place here with your place in Paris, in the Pyrénées or in Bourgogne anytime. Je suis prêt pour le déménagement immédiat!

London is ready for World War III

So we have the 2012 Summer Olympics coming to town. As a Londoner, I am not excited. A busy, crowded and polluted city like London needs two more weeks of a massive rumpus like a hole in its head. And the UK, now officially in a recession once more, needs this tax-payer funded orgy for the few even less.

“At least we didn’t need to buy tickets to watch the match.”

I once applauded London for its measured response to the 7/7 terror attacks, but a few years later most people in the UK have gone security mad. About 1 billion £ will be spent on security for the upcoming London Olympics. (Providing security at the Olympics will therefore cost the same amount in 2 weeks as the Department of Energy and Climate Change spends in a whole year.)

The plans for security at the London Olympics include helicopters, fighter jets, assault ships, missile bases in residential areas, snipers, sonic weapons and an aircraft carrier. A 30-mile zone will become a restricted flying zone. People who blog subversive stuff like this will probably be detained during the Olympics.

“These new doping substances are highly explosive.”

London will be more heavily fortified than during some times of World War II and more military will defend stadiums, swimmers and runners than is stationed even on the Falkland Islands. Speaking about the Falklands, defending the whole group of islands costs about a third of the security expenses of the Olympics; but in a whole year.

With all this gear in place and the expenses already draining public funds, I almost hope for terrorist attacks during the London Olympics, so that there will at least be some action. Air assaults, urban warfare and sniper duels would definitely be more interesting than water polo, gymnastics or rowing. Therefore, please use this map of the military defences in any way you wish.

Souvenir from Afghanistan

Thousands of NATO soldiers will be returning home from Afghanistan soon. The toughest thing about being away for 6 months is knowing that your wife won’t be happy about your return, unless you bring a souvenir with you.

I expect the following situation to happen in many homes across the US, Britain, Germany and other troop-contributing countries:

“My husband was in Afghanistan for 6 months and all I got was this stupid burka.”

Malta says “Thank You”

My assignment in Malta has come to an end and I am about to embark on the next adventure, but the people of Malta will not easily forget my stay with them. With my magnificent photos and my investigative reporting, I have catapulted this small island into the limelight of international attention. Even though my contributions to the public debate and my attempts to enhance the level of intellectual discourse were not welcomed by all, the overall majority of Maltese seem to feel enriched by my presence. I was therefore unable to prevent them from expressing their gratitude.

As is to be expected from a country where everybody and his cousin have a statue in some park, on a highway or at a bus stop, the people of Malta commissioned a statue for me, with my name on it and a rather good depiction of myself:

statue for Andreas Moser at the Rotunda of Mosta in Malta

Thank you very much! I appreciate this honour.

- – -

Or are the Maltese just happy to see me leave?

Leicht zu verwechseln, # 1

Anläßlich der aktuellen Koranverteilungsaktion in Deutschland, Österreich und der Schweiz rufe ich den folgenden Unterschied erneut ins Bewußtsein, damit Sie nicht mit einem Einkaufskorb voll Unerwünschtem nach Hause kommen:

"Korane! Frische Korane!"

"Kormorane! Frische Kormorane!"